BIOGRAPH-I - 47383

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Model Prediksi Insiden Penyakit Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur pada Tahun 2024-2025

Amelia Indah Saputri
Departemen Epidemiologi, Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Mulawarman, Indonesia

Irfansyah Baharuddin Pakki
Departemen Epidemiologi, Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Mulawarman, Indonesia

Siswanto
Departemen Epidemiologi, Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Mulawarman, Indonesia

DOI: 10.19184/biograph-i.v3i2.47383

Keywords: ARIMA, epidemiology, East Kalimantan, prediction, tuberculosis

ABSTRACT

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is still a significant global health problem. East Kalimantan Province is ranked 17th in Indonesia and 2nd in Kalimantan, with the highest TB cases. Therefore, anticipatory steps are needed to strengthen TB prevention and control efforts in East Kalimantan. This study aims to predict and analyze the results of TB incidence predictions.

Methods: This research is observational and descriptive, using quantitative data with time series analysis of TB incidents from 2020-2023 with ARIMA model data processing.

Result: The research results show that the TB incidence in East Kalimantan reached 21,635 cases in 2020-2023. The majority of cases were aged 25-34 years (16.1%), mostly men (59.1%), and diagnosed with clinical pulmonary TB (46.0%). The incidence of TB is highly distributed in Balikpapan (22.3%), Samarinda (22.1%), and Kutai Kartanegara (12.9%). The prediction results for TB incidence in East Kalimantan are estimated to be 6,732 and 7,088 cases in 2024 and 2025 using the IMA (0,1,1) model.

Conclusion: The results of predictions of TB incidence can be reviewed through epidemiological analysis to strengthen awareness of increasing cases, provide a comprehensive picture of the dynamics of TB spread, and support health policy-making in East Kalimantan.

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